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2019-08-19 Episode 10 Watch the Enemy

Sun Tzu in his science of war also relied on observation to read the enemy’s movement, the meticulous and exhaustive approach with which he tried to gain information about the enemy can still be inspiring.

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Into the second half of the art of war, we've covered almost all of Zwinzi's thinking on military strategy. In these last few chapters, we're mostly looking at his instructions on what to do in specific situations. In chapters 9 through 11, with a lot of detail and a lot of repetition, Zwinzi chiefly addressed three aspects of war, watch the enemy, know thyself, and use the terrain. I feel like we talked a lot about the terrain already, so we'll look at the other two subjects. But first, let's start with a poem. Not from the stars do I my judgment pluck, and yet methinks I have astronomy. Not to tell of good or evil luck, of plagues, of dearths, or season's quality. Nor can I fortune to brief men's tale, pointing to each his thunder, rain, and wind. Or say with princes, if it shall go well, by oft predict that I in heaven find. But from thy eyes my knowledge I derive, and constant stars, in them I read such art as truth and beauty shall together thrive, if from thyself to store thou wast convert. Or else of thee this I prognosticate, thy end is truth and beauty's doom and date. That rather romantic reference to astrology is William Shakespeare's Sonnet 14. Long before the English bard pained these immortal verses, people had been reading the stars to tear their fortune. The Babylonians watched the movement of the sun, the moon, and the planets to predict the welfare of the state. Theirs was believed to be the first organized system of astrology. In China's spring and autumn period, besides observation of its literal bodies, people who were into mysticism and divination were beginning to develop a theory surrounding Qi, the cosmic energy circulating in the environment. An expert watcher of Qi can not only predict the weather and make wise decisions on what to wear the next morning, the best of them were even feared to possess foresight on the rise and fall of a dynasty. Of course, not everybody had the need for information nor when the emperor was going to kick the bucket, so more practical applications of the theory were found as it became more popular. For example, some people use it to find the best spot for a house or a tomb so that the family can tap into this cosmic energy and enjoy a good fortune. This theory is still being practiced today. Maybe you've heard of Feng Shui? Well, some people might tell you that this whole gimmick of Qi watching was the basis of Feng Shui. Qi watching was also adopted in wars albeit by an unexpected group of thinkers in the spring and autumn period. Mozi said, by watching Qi, you can tell whether the enemy is sending a high-ranking commander or a minor officer. You can tell whether they are advancing or retreating and whether this war is going to end in victory or defeat. A commander must keep the Qi watcher close at hand and the results under wraps. Moizen was even more influential than Confucianism for a few hundred years before the third century BCE. Its founder, Mozi, called for austerity, peace and love, virtues that resonated with everyday people who had languished under centuries of continuous warfare. The coolest thing about Mozi and his disciples is that they may have been the forebears of ninjas. They formed paramilitary groups and went around helping small states to defend themselves against powerful invaders. Being good with mathematics, geometry and physical sciences, these philosophical crusaders developed impressive theories and contraptions for siege defence. So it was unusual for these engineer warriors to subscribe to something as elusive as the Qi. Sun Tzu, in his Science of War, also relied on observation to reach the enemy's movement. Although he looked for more concrete signs like disturbances in the trees, grass, animals and dust. For instance, the forest is supposed to be quiet and still but when many trees start shaking lots of birds take flight and beasts scuttle in panic. The enemy might be trying to sneak his way forward. The enemy's movement, or the lack of it, also gives away many signs to observant eyes. For instance, when an opponent speaks humbly about his strength, there's a good chance that he's building it up for a strike. When he speaks in a tough language and presses ahead, there's a possibility that he's covering up his plans to retreat. When he sends light chariots and deploys them on the flanks, he's laying out a battle formation. When he asks for a peace treaty for no apparent reason, an astute commander should be on the lookout for a double cross. Sometimes you can tell a lot from the little things. When enemy soldiers struggle to stand upright and they lean on their spears, they're probably starved. If the soldiers in charge of drawing water take huge gobs before filling their utensils, they might have problems with their water supply and are probably thirsty. If the enemy sees an opportunity and does nothing, it's probably because his forces are too exhausted to act. And if birds gather on the trees in enemy camps, the opponent may have fewer soldiers than he lets on. It is also important to be extra careful with enemies who are determined to fight to the death. If they are spotted feeding their horses with grains, slaughtering their cattle for food, and no longer care about putting away their cooking pots, most likely they are ready to put up a tough fight. Some of Sinzi's instructions are quite obsolete in modern times, but the meticulous and exhaustive approach with which he tried to gain information about the enemy can still be inspiring. Like Confucius said, to truly know a man, look at what he does, find out why he does it, and examine whether he is content with the result, and you can hardly miss his true color. When we watch our enemy with laser sharp focus, we'll most certainly be able to figure out their strengths and weaknesses, and in turn work out our best possible game plan.